The world's biggest defense contractors are on track to keep their grip on the global weapons market for the next decade, even as cheaper drones reshape modern warfare.
According to a new report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and Vertical Research Partners, established defense giants are expected to retain more than 80% of the global weapons market through 2033.
That forecast is notable because of what it pushes back against. The rapid rise of drones — highlighted by the report as a "surge" — has fueled expectations that low-cost, autonomous systems and nimble startups could erode the position of legacy manufacturers. The BCG and Vertical Research Partners analysis suggests that disruption, at least at the level of overall market share, will be limited over the next ten years.
The report frames the drone boom and the continued dominance of big defense as coexisting rather than competing outright: even amid the shift toward autonomous weapons, the incumbents are projected to hold the lion's share of the market.
Why it matters: if the largest contractors keep more than four-fifths of a market being transformed by drones, it signals that scale, existing contracts, and entrenched relationships may matter more than technological novelty in deciding who profits from the next decade of defense spending.