Robinhood's fastest-growing business is no longer stocks or crypto. It's wagers on real-world events.
According to a report by Yueqi Yang of The Information, surfaced by Techmeme, Robinhood's prediction markets revenue surged more than tenfold year over year to $156 million in the second quarter. That figure topped what the brokerage app took in from stock trading and from crypto — the first time the events business has led the pack.
Prediction markets let users buy and sell contracts tied to outcomes in the real world, with prices moving as the perceived odds change. The Information frames the shift as speculators moving toward bets on real-world events, and reports that Robinhood has quickly become a force in the category, challenging the hold of Kalshi, the exchange that had largely defined it.
The number is worth reading carefully. A 10x jump comes off a small base, and one strong quarter is not a durable trend. The reporting cited here covers Robinhood's revenue and its competitive position against Kalshi; it does not address regulatory questions, user counts, or how the segment performs in quieter periods with fewer headline events to trade.
Still, the ranking is the striking part. Robinhood built its brand on commission-free stock trading and rode the retail crypto boom, and both of those businesses were out-earned by a product category that barely registered a year ago. For a company whose revenue depends on how often and how eagerly its users trade, that says something about where retail attention is going.
Why it matters: when a mainstream brokerage makes more money from event contracts than from stocks, the line between investing and betting gets harder for regulators — and for ordinary users — to draw.